DIAGNOSE

Objective: Produce evidence to support timely contextualized decision-making to avoid or mitigate COVID-19 community spread

Proposed actions and sub-objectives

  • Assessing countries and communities’ risks and readiness to COVID-19

Key questions

  • What is the status of COVID-19 in the country? 
  • Where are people, including those most at risk? 
  • How are people moving, based on international mobility models and experience from Spain and Italy?
  • How is the epidemic likely to spread?
  • What is people perception of the virus and crisis? Are they aware, worried? Do they trust authorities? What means to they have to cope? 
  • What are other major compounding factors presenting risks of crowding out / exacerbation of other challenges.
  • What can be done realistically? What data sources?

Data and/or methods

  • Sub-national age pyramids from WorldPop and national statistics.
  • Official and financial statistics
  • Governance indicators
  • Satellite imagery (e.g. night-time lights from NASA ‘black marble’ data), vessel traffic data, air cargo tracking data.
  • Online survey based on Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) survey and Valencia response team’s (see https://coronavirussurvey.org/ and https://is.gd/covidvalencia)

Key questions

  • Analysis of the strength of public and health services (stocks of relevant equipment, presence and allocation of medical force across country, means for testing, existing communication channels to reach the population etc.)
  • Economic assessment, i.e. evaluation of macroeconomic capacity to mobilize trade agreements, external support, and financial / fiscal resources  to respond.

Data and/or methods

  • Key informant Interviews (qualitative)
  • Quantitative (survey) data collection with public health personnel in collaboration with the Ministry of Health.
  • Macroeconomic data 
  • Modeling and optimizing COVID-19 local response effectiveness and impact
  • Feasibility and expected impact of early-on intervention measures (i.e. hygiene campaigns and subsidies) and large-scale testing approach (how it works, cost, smart sampling procedures if needed/applicable)
  • To what extent are containment and social distancing measures are respected and effective? Modelization of in-country/city interactions, towards identifying mobility/movement patterns more at risk of fostering contagion. 

Data and/or methods

  • Desk research.
  • Mobility and interaction data: Cell phone data analysis through code pipeline, Cuebiq data.
  • Based on key algorithms and metrics developed in Spain, Italy, Korea, US, Belgium.
  • Social physics and network analysis. 

i.e.

  • Optimal location of deployment of dedicated COVID-19 medical centers.
  • Optimal allocation of medical equipment across health sites (via expected cases per catchment area)

Data and/or methods

  • Key informant Interviews (qualitative)
  • Quantitative (survey) data collection with public health personnel in collaboration with the Ministry of Health.
  • Macroeconomic data 
  • Measuring the corollary effects of COVID-19 on societies

Research paper(s) on:

  • Domestic violence and abuse especially against women and children 
  • Violence waves as consequence of livelihood disruptions.
  • Mental health (PTSD, confinement, etc., including for children and teens).
  • Substance deprivation.
  • Crowding out vs. other health conditions.

Data and/or methods

  • Desk and literature review 
  • Key Informant Interviews (KII)
  • Perception survey (HHI). 

Research paper(s) country-specific tradeoffs between containment measures, epidemiological interval/phase and short and long-term economic / livelihood impacts to inform decisions to ‘re-open’ economies according to specific contexts, from refugee camps in Lebanon to major cities in Colombia. 

Data and/or methods

  • Desk research
  • Key Informant Interviews (KII)
  • Economic analysis 

Projecting and proposing long-term implications of the pandemic on the future of economies, societal values, environmental models.

Data and/or methods

  • Desk and literature review 
  • Interviews with key experts and thinkers
  • Synthesis of global policy interventions and historical learnings

i.e.

    • Synthesizing different policy approaches worldwide and draw key learnings based on available evidence and historical experiences (H1N1, SARS, Ebola…)
    • Identify and present key models for mobility monitoring, i.e. to understand mobility that are the most dangerous and draw lessons learnt for other countries, especially Spain, Italy, Korea and the US.
    • Present key features and requirements of technological systems and governance / regulatory standards for private data sharing and use.

Data and/or methods

  • Desk research, Key Informant Interviews (KII).
  • Mobility and interaction data (Cell phone data).
  • Based on key metrics and learnings developed in Spain,  Italy, France, Korea and US in particular.