Socio-economic, built environment, and mobility conditions associated with crime: A study of multiple cities

Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Mainstream studies analyse crime records through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio-economical characteristics) and often at large spatial units. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how crime is related not only to socio-economic factors but also to the built environmental (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. To that end, we integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces and compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogotá, Los Angeles and Chicago. We find that the combined use of socio-economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio-ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no “one fits all” model.

Topics

Author(s)

Author(s): 
Marco De Nadai, Yanyan Xu, Emmanuel Letouzé, Marta C. González, Bruno Lepri

Partner Organization(s)

Fondazione Bruno Kessler, MIT, University of California Berkeley, University of Trento

Share

Recommendations

Project Report

Mapping and Dynamics of Violence involving Youth and Children in Urban Areas in Port-au-Prince

This publication, a collaboration between Data-Pop Alliance and UNICEF, explores the dynamics

Journal Article

Reflections on the Relevance of Updated, Standardised, and Reliable Data on Sexual and Gender-Based Violence for Research and Policymaking for Eradication, Response, and Prevention in Sierra Leone

Sexual and gender–based violence (SGBV) is a multifaceted, endemic, and nefarious phenomenon

Project Report

Case Study on Tracking Research Influence on Gender-Based Violence Policy in West Africa and Latin America

Gender-based violence (GBV) is a global public health crisis and a serious

Project Report

Towards Substantive Equality in Artificial Intelligence: Transformative AI Policy for Gender Equality and Diversity

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) offers significant potential to improve

Project Report

Feminist Urban Design: A Gender-Inclusive Framework for Cities

The inception report “Feminist Urban Design: A Gender-Inclusive Framework for Cities,” developed